{"product_id":"a-philosophical-essay-on-probabilities","title":"Ensayo filosófico sobre las probabilidades","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eWhat if chance is simply a name for what we do not know?\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, Pierre-Simon Laplace takes uncertainty out of the gambling room and into daily judgment. Writing for readers who are not mathematicians, he uses almost no formulas. Dice, coins, coloured balls, birth records and court verdicts show how probability helps us reason when the facts are incomplete.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eLaplace imagines a mind that knows every force and position in nature and can see the whole future. We have no such knowledge. Instead, he explores how to combine chances, trace effects back to likely causes, and weigh evidence. The stakes reach from trust in a witness to the strength of a scientific hypothesis.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch3\u003eWhat you'll discover\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eA clear starting point\u003c\/strong\u003e – Explore what probability means through equally possible cases, coins, dice and coloured balls.\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eClues that lead backward\u003c\/strong\u003e – Follow the reasoning that moves from an observed effect toward its likely cause.\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eEvidence in human affairs\u003c\/strong\u003e – Consider how probability can help weigh testimony, jury decisions and votes.\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003ePatterns beneath uncertain events\u003c\/strong\u003e – See how averages settle toward steady values even when single outcomes remain uncertain.\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eCommon sense under scrutiny\u003c\/strong\u003e – Examine why a long run of one outcome need not make its opposite likelier.\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003c\/ul\u003e\u003cp\u003ePerfect for curious readers who enjoy clear reasoning, students of science, law or statistics, and anyone seeking the roots of modern thinking about evidence.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOpen the first page now and explore how careful reasoning gives you a firmer hold on doubt.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Library of Alexandria Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":59534755299676,"sku":null,"price":0.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1027\/9442\/8764\/files\/09009_en_ebook-front_c17.jpg?v=1792175177","url":"https:\/\/libraryofalexandria.com\/es\/products\/ensayo-filosofico-sobre-las-probabilidades","provider":"The Library of Alexandria","version":"1.0","type":"link"}